Merge pull request #3372 from joostjager/mc-successes

routing: process payment successes in mission control

cmd/lncli/cmd_query_mission_control.go

@@ -38,10 +38,11 @@ func queryMissionControl(ctx *cli.Context) error {
 	}
 
 	type displayPairHistory struct {
-		NodeFrom, NodeTo  string
+		NodeFrom, NodeTo      string
-		LastFailTime      int64
+		LastAttemptSuccessful bool
-		SuccessProb       float32
+		Timestamp             int64
-		MinPenalizeAmtSat int64
+		SuccessProb           float32
+		MinPenalizeAmtSat     int64
 	}
 
 	displayResp := struct {
@@ -64,11 +65,12 @@ func queryMissionControl(ctx *cli.Context) error {
 		displayResp.Pairs = append(
 			displayResp.Pairs,
 			displayPairHistory{
-				NodeFrom:          hex.EncodeToString(n.NodeFrom),
+				NodeFrom:              hex.EncodeToString(n.NodeFrom),
-				NodeTo:            hex.EncodeToString(n.NodeTo),
+				NodeTo:                hex.EncodeToString(n.NodeTo),
-				LastFailTime:      n.LastFailTime,
+				LastAttemptSuccessful: n.LastAttemptSuccessful,
-				SuccessProb:       n.SuccessProb,
+				Timestamp:             n.Timestamp,
-				MinPenalizeAmtSat: n.MinPenalizeAmtSat,
+				SuccessProb:           n.SuccessProb,
+				MinPenalizeAmtSat:     n.MinPenalizeAmtSat,
 			},
 		)
 	}

lnrpc/routerrpc/router.pb.go

@@ -1108,15 +1108,17 @@ type PairHistory struct {
 	NodeFrom []byte `protobuf:"bytes,1,opt,name=node_from,proto3" json:"node_from,omitempty"`
 	/// The destination node pubkey of the pair.
 	NodeTo []byte `protobuf:"bytes,2,opt,name=node_to,proto3" json:"node_to,omitempty"`
-	/// Time stamp of last failure.
+	/// Time stamp of last result.
-	LastFailTime int64 `protobuf:"varint,3,opt,name=last_fail_time,proto3" json:"last_fail_time,omitempty"`
+	Timestamp int64 `protobuf:"varint,3,opt,name=timestamp,proto3" json:"timestamp,omitempty"`
-	/// Minimum penalization amount.
+	/// Minimum penalization amount (only applies to failed attempts).
 	MinPenalizeAmtSat int64 `protobuf:"varint,4,opt,name=min_penalize_amt_sat,proto3" json:"min_penalize_amt_sat,omitempty"`
 	/// Estimation of success probability for this pair.
-	SuccessProb          float32  `protobuf:"fixed32,5,opt,name=success_prob,proto3" json:"success_prob,omitempty"`
+	SuccessProb float32 `protobuf:"fixed32,5,opt,name=success_prob,proto3" json:"success_prob,omitempty"`
-	XXX_NoUnkeyedLiteral struct{} `json:"-"`
+	/// Whether the last payment attempt through this pair was successful.
-	XXX_unrecognized     []byte   `json:"-"`
+	LastAttemptSuccessful bool     `protobuf:"varint,6,opt,name=last_attempt_successful,proto3" json:"last_attempt_successful,omitempty"`
-	XXX_sizecache        int32    `json:"-"`
+	XXX_NoUnkeyedLiteral  struct{} `json:"-"`
+	XXX_unrecognized      []byte   `json:"-"`
+	XXX_sizecache         int32    `json:"-"`
 }
 
 func (m *PairHistory) Reset()         { *m = PairHistory{} }
@@ -1158,9 +1160,9 @@ func (m *PairHistory) GetNodeTo() []byte {
 	return nil
 }
 
-func (m *PairHistory) GetLastFailTime() int64 {
+func (m *PairHistory) GetTimestamp() int64 {
 	if m != nil {
-		return m.LastFailTime
+		return m.Timestamp
 	}
 	return 0
 }
@@ -1179,6 +1181,13 @@ func (m *PairHistory) GetSuccessProb() float32 {
 	return 0
 }
 
+func (m *PairHistory) GetLastAttemptSuccessful() bool {
+	if m != nil {
+		return m.LastAttemptSuccessful
+	}
+	return false
+}
+
 func init() {
 	proto.RegisterEnum("routerrpc.PaymentState", PaymentState_name, PaymentState_value)
 	proto.RegisterEnum("routerrpc.Failure_FailureCode", Failure_FailureCode_name, Failure_FailureCode_value)
@@ -1203,116 +1212,117 @@ func init() {
 func init() { proto.RegisterFile("routerrpc/router.proto", fileDescriptor_7a0613f69d37b0a5) }
 
 var fileDescriptor_7a0613f69d37b0a5 = []byte{
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-	0x1c, 0x6c, 0xa9, 0x68, 0xf4, 0x8b, 0x74, 0x04, 0xef, 0xd5, 0x83, 0xda, 0xf3, 0xff, 0x45, 0x5b,
+	0x70, 0xad, 0x2d, 0xae, 0xab, 0x8e, 0x3e, 0x62, 0xdc, 0xb0, 0x3d, 0x38, 0xe2, 0x72, 0x97, 0x58,
-	0xad, 0xb2, 0xa5, 0xf4, 0xd7, 0x56, 0x79, 0xbf, 0x70, 0xac, 0xad, 0xf2, 0x01, 0x05, 0x79, 0xf9,
+	0xfb, 0xf4, 0x31, 0x73, 0xec, 0x6d, 0x04, 0xbb, 0x6b, 0x14, 0x00, 0xfd, 0x22, 0xbd, 0x83, 0x47,
-	0xab, 0xdf, 0x5d, 0x4c, 0x5c, 0x31, 0x5d, 0x5c, 0x9f, 0x8f, 0x82, 0xd9, 0x85, 0xe7, 0x4e, 0xa6,
+	0xf5, 0xa3, 0xf6, 0xfc, 0x7f, 0xd1, 0x16, 0xab, 0xac, 0x91, 0x8a, 0xa5, 0x55, 0x1e, 0x17, 0x9a,
-	0xc2, 0x77, 0xfd, 0x89, 0xcf, 0xc5, 0x1f, 0x82, 0xf0, 0xf6, 0xc2, 0xf3, 0xc7, 0x17, 0xaa, 0xa1,
+	0xa5, 0x55, 0x3e, 0xa2, 0x38, 0xaf, 0x7e, 0xf5, 0xbb, 0xb3, 0x1b, 0x57, 0x8c, 0x67, 0x57, 0xa7,
-	0xbd, 0x58, 0xba, 0xbb, 0xde, 0x55, 0xff, 0x48, 0x7f, 0xfd, 0xdf, 0x00, 0x00, 0x00, 0xff, 0xff,
+	0xc3, 0x60, 0x72, 0xe6, 0xb9, 0x37, 0x63, 0xe1, 0xbb, 0xfe, 0x8d, 0xcf, 0xc5, 0x1f, 0x82, 0xf0,
-	0x54, 0xde, 0xd4, 0xfd, 0xc1, 0x0e, 0x00, 0x00,
+	0xf6, 0xcc, 0xf3, 0x47, 0x67, 0xaa, 0x01, 0x3e, 0x9b, 0xbb, 0xbb, 0xda, 0x54, 0xff, 0x60, 0x7f,
+	0xfd, 0xdf, 0x00, 0x00, 0x00, 0xff, 0xff, 0xd5, 0x11, 0xe6, 0x51, 0xf1, 0x0e, 0x00, 0x00,
 }
 
 // Reference imports to suppress errors if they are not otherwise used.

lnrpc/routerrpc/router.proto

@@ -364,14 +364,17 @@ message PairHistory {
     /// The destination node pubkey of the pair.
     bytes node_to = 2 [json_name="node_to"];
     
-    /// Time stamp of last failure.
+    /// Time stamp of last result.
-    int64 last_fail_time = 3 [json_name = "last_fail_time"];
+    int64 timestamp = 3 [json_name = "timestamp"];
 
-    /// Minimum penalization amount.
+    /// Minimum penalization amount (only applies to failed attempts).
     int64 min_penalize_amt_sat = 4 [json_name = "min_penalize_amt_sat"];
 
     /// Estimation of success probability for this pair.
     float success_prob = 5 [json_name = "success_prob"];
+
+    /// Whether the last payment attempt through this pair was successful.
+    bool last_attempt_successful = 6 [json_name = "last_attempt_successful"];
 }
 
 service Router {

lnrpc/routerrpc/router_server.go

@@ -473,13 +473,14 @@ func (s *Server) QueryMissionControl(ctx context.Context,
 		pair := p
 
 		rpcPair := PairHistory{
-			NodeFrom:     pair.Pair.From[:],
+			NodeFrom:  pair.Pair.From[:],
-			NodeTo:       pair.Pair.To[:],
+			NodeTo:    pair.Pair.To[:],
-			LastFailTime: pair.LastFail.Unix(),
+			Timestamp: pair.Timestamp.Unix(),
 			MinPenalizeAmtSat: int64(
 				pair.MinPenalizeAmt.ToSatoshis(),
 			),
-			SuccessProb: float32(pair.SuccessProb),
+			SuccessProb:           float32(pair.SuccessProb),
+			LastAttemptSuccessful: pair.LastAttemptSuccessful,
 		}
 
 		rpcPairs = append(rpcPairs, &rpcPair)

routing/missioncontrol.go

@@ -43,6 +43,10 @@ const (
 
 	// DefaultMaxMcHistory is the default maximum history size.
 	DefaultMaxMcHistory = 1000
+
+	// prevSuccessProbability is the assumed probability for node pairs that
+	// successfully relayed the previous attempt.
+	prevSuccessProbability = 0.95
 )
 
 // MissionControl contains state which summarizes the past attempts of HTLC
@@ -55,8 +59,8 @@ const (
 // since the last failure is used to estimate a success probability that is fed
 // into the path finding process for subsequent payment attempts.
 type MissionControl struct {
-	// lastPairFailure tracks the last payment failure per node pair.
+	// lastPairResult tracks the last payment result per node pair.
-	lastPairFailure map[DirectedNodePair]pairFailure
+	lastPairResult map[DirectedNodePair]timedPairResult
 
 	// lastNodeFailure tracks the last node level failure per node.
 	lastNodeFailure map[route.Vertex]time.Time
@@ -97,14 +101,12 @@ type MissionControlConfig struct {
 	MaxMcHistory int
 }
 
-// pairFailure describes a payment failure for a node pair.
+// timedPairResult describes a timestamped pair result.
-type pairFailure struct {
+type timedPairResult struct {
-	// timestamp is the time when this failure result was obtained.
+	// timestamp is the time when this result was obtained.
 	timestamp time.Time
 
-	// minPenalizeAmt is the minimum amount for which to take this failure
+	pairResult
-	// into account.
-	minPenalizeAmt lnwire.MilliSatoshi
 }
 
 // MissionControlSnapshot contains a snapshot of the current state of mission
@@ -138,8 +140,8 @@ type MissionControlPairSnapshot struct {
 	// Pair is the node pair of which the state is described.
 	Pair DirectedNodePair
 
-	// LastFail is the time of last failure.
+	// Timestamp is the time of last result.
-	LastFail time.Time
+	Timestamp time.Time
 
 	// MinPenalizeAmt is the minimum amount for which the channel will be
 	// penalized.
@@ -147,6 +149,10 @@ type MissionControlPairSnapshot struct {
 
 	// SuccessProb is the success probability estimation for this channel.
 	SuccessProb float64
+
+	// LastAttemptSuccessful indicates whether the last payment attempt
+	// through this pair was successful.
+	LastAttemptSuccessful bool
 }
 
 // paymentResult is the information that becomes available when a payment
@@ -174,7 +180,7 @@ func NewMissionControl(db *bbolt.DB, cfg *MissionControlConfig) (
 	}
 
 	mc := &MissionControl{
-		lastPairFailure:  make(map[DirectedNodePair]pairFailure),
+		lastPairResult:   make(map[DirectedNodePair]timedPairResult),
 		lastNodeFailure:  make(map[route.Vertex]time.Time),
 		lastSecondChance: make(map[DirectedNodePair]time.Time),
 		now:              time.Now,
@@ -220,7 +226,7 @@ func (m *MissionControl) ResetHistory() error {
 		return err
 	}
 
-	m.lastPairFailure = make(map[DirectedNodePair]pairFailure)
+	m.lastPairResult = make(map[DirectedNodePair]timedPairResult)
 	m.lastNodeFailure = make(map[route.Vertex]time.Time)
 	m.lastSecondChance = make(map[DirectedNodePair]time.Time)
 
@@ -271,12 +277,16 @@ func (m *MissionControl) getPairProbability(fromNode,
 
 	// Retrieve the last pair outcome.
 	pair := NewDirectedNodePair(fromNode, toNode)
-	lastPairResult, ok := m.lastPairFailure[pair]
+	lastPairResult, ok := m.lastPairResult[pair]
 
 	// Only look at the last pair outcome if it happened after the last node
 	// level failure. Otherwise the node level failure is the most recent
 	// and used as the basis for calculation of the probability.
 	if ok && lastPairResult.timestamp.After(lastFail) {
+		if lastPairResult.success {
+			return prevSuccessProbability
+		}
+
 		// Take into account a minimum penalize amount. For balance
 		// errors, a failure may be reported with such a minimum to
 		// prevent too aggresive penalization. We only take into account
@@ -330,7 +340,7 @@ func (m *MissionControl) GetHistorySnapshot() *MissionControlSnapshot {
 
 	log.Debugf("Requesting history snapshot from mission control: "+
 		"node_failure_count=%v, pair_result_count=%v",
-		len(m.lastNodeFailure), len(m.lastPairFailure))
+		len(m.lastNodeFailure), len(m.lastPairResult))
 
 	nodes := make([]MissionControlNodeSnapshot, 0, len(m.lastNodeFailure))
 	for v, h := range m.lastNodeFailure {
@@ -343,18 +353,19 @@ func (m *MissionControl) GetHistorySnapshot() *MissionControlSnapshot {
 		})
 	}
 
-	pairs := make([]MissionControlPairSnapshot, 0, len(m.lastPairFailure))
+	pairs := make([]MissionControlPairSnapshot, 0, len(m.lastPairResult))
 
-	for v, h := range m.lastPairFailure {
+	for v, h := range m.lastPairResult {
 		// Show probability assuming amount meets min
 		// penalization amount.
 		prob := m.getPairProbability(v.From, v.To, h.minPenalizeAmt)
 
 		pair := MissionControlPairSnapshot{
-			Pair:           v,
+			Pair:                  v,
-			MinPenalizeAmt: h.minPenalizeAmt,
+			MinPenalizeAmt:        h.minPenalizeAmt,
-			LastFail:       h.timestamp,
+			Timestamp:             h.timestamp,
-			SuccessProb:    prob,
+			SuccessProb:           prob,
+			LastAttemptSuccessful: h.success,
 		}
 
 		pairs = append(pairs, pair)
@@ -379,7 +390,6 @@ func (m *MissionControl) ReportPaymentFail(paymentID uint64, rt *route.Route,
 
 	timestamp := m.now()
 
-	// TODO(joostjager): Use actual payment initiation time for timeFwd.
 	result := &paymentResult{
 		success:          false,
 		timeFwd:          timestamp,
@@ -390,6 +400,33 @@ func (m *MissionControl) ReportPaymentFail(paymentID uint64, rt *route.Route,
 		route:            rt,
 	}
 
+	return m.processPaymentResult(result)
+}
+
+// ReportPaymentSuccess reports a successful payment to mission control as input
+// for future probability estimates.
+func (m *MissionControl) ReportPaymentSuccess(paymentID uint64,
+	rt *route.Route) error {
+
+	timestamp := m.now()
+
+	result := &paymentResult{
+		timeFwd:   timestamp,
+		timeReply: timestamp,
+		id:        paymentID,
+		success:   true,
+		route:     rt,
+	}
+
+	_, err := m.processPaymentResult(result)
+	return err
+}
+
+// processPaymentResult stores a payment result in the mission control store and
+// updates mission control's in-memory state.
+func (m *MissionControl) processPaymentResult(result *paymentResult) (
+	*channeldb.FailureReason, error) {
+
 	// Store complete result in database.
 	if err := m.store.AddResult(result); err != nil {
 		return nil, err
@@ -409,7 +446,8 @@ func (m *MissionControl) applyPaymentResult(
 
 	// Interpret result.
 	i := interpretResult(
-		result.route, result.failureSourceIdx, result.failure,
+		result.route, result.success, result.failureSourceIdx,
+		result.failure,
 	)
 
 	// Update mission control state using the interpretation.
@@ -432,13 +470,19 @@ func (m *MissionControl) applyPaymentResult(
 		m.lastNodeFailure[*i.nodeFailure] = result.timeReply
 	}
 
-	for pair, minPenalizeAmt := range i.pairResults {
+	for pair, pairResult := range i.pairResults {
-		log.Debugf("Reporting pair failure to Mission Control: "+
+		if pairResult.success {
-			"pair=%v, minPenalizeAmt=%v", pair, minPenalizeAmt)
+			log.Debugf("Reporting pair success to Mission "+
+				"Control: pair=%v", pair)
+		} else {
+			log.Debugf("Reporting pair failure to Mission "+
+				"Control: pair=%v, minPenalizeAmt=%v",
+				pair, pairResult.minPenalizeAmt)
+		}
 
-		m.lastPairFailure[pair] = pairFailure{
+		m.lastPairResult[pair] = timedPairResult{
-			minPenalizeAmt: minPenalizeAmt,
+			timestamp:  result.timeReply,
-			timestamp:      result.timeReply,
+			pairResult: pairResult,
 		}
 	}
 

routing/missioncontrol_test.go

@@ -103,8 +103,8 @@ func (ctx *mcTestContext) expectP(amt lnwire.MilliSatoshi, expected float64) {
 }
 
 // reportFailure reports a failure by using a test route.
-func (ctx *mcTestContext) reportFailure(t time.Time,
+func (ctx *mcTestContext) reportFailure(amt lnwire.MilliSatoshi,
-	amt lnwire.MilliSatoshi, failure lnwire.FailureMessage) {
+	failure lnwire.FailureMessage) {
 
 	mcTestRoute.Hops[0].AmtToForward = amt
 
@@ -114,6 +114,16 @@ func (ctx *mcTestContext) reportFailure(t time.Time,
 	)
 }
 
+// reportSuccess reports a success by using a test route.
+func (ctx *mcTestContext) reportSuccess() {
+	err := ctx.mc.ReportPaymentSuccess(ctx.pid, mcTestRoute)
+	if err != nil {
+		ctx.t.Fatal(err)
+	}
+
+	ctx.pid++
+}
+
 // TestMissionControl tests mission control probability estimation.
 func TestMissionControl(t *testing.T) {
 	ctx := createMcTestContext(t)
@@ -127,10 +137,7 @@ func TestMissionControl(t *testing.T) {
 	ctx.expectP(1000, 0.8)
 
 	// Expect probability to be zero after reporting the edge as failed.
-	ctx.reportFailure(
+	ctx.reportFailure(1000, lnwire.NewTemporaryChannelFailure(nil))
-		testTime, 1000,
-		lnwire.NewTemporaryChannelFailure(nil),
-	)
 	ctx.expectP(1000, 0)
 
 	// As we reported with a min penalization amt, a lower amt than reported
@@ -143,10 +150,7 @@ func TestMissionControl(t *testing.T) {
 
 	// Edge fails again, this time without a min penalization amt. The edge
 	// should be penalized regardless of amount.
-	ctx.reportFailure(
+	ctx.reportFailure(0, lnwire.NewTemporaryChannelFailure(nil))
-		ctx.now, 0,
-		lnwire.NewTemporaryChannelFailure(nil),
-	)
 	ctx.expectP(1000, 0)
 	ctx.expectP(500, 0)
 
@@ -160,10 +164,7 @@ func TestMissionControl(t *testing.T) {
 
 	// A node level failure should bring probability of every channel back
 	// to zero.
-	ctx.reportFailure(
+	ctx.reportFailure(0, lnwire.NewExpiryTooSoon(lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}))
-		ctx.now, 0,
-		lnwire.NewExpiryTooSoon(lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}),
-	)
 	ctx.expectP(1000, 0)
 
 	// Check whether history snapshot looks sane.
@@ -173,9 +174,12 @@ func TestMissionControl(t *testing.T) {
 			len(history.Nodes))
 	}
 
-	if len(history.Pairs) != 1 {
+	if len(history.Pairs) != 2 {
-		t.Fatal("unexpected number of channels")
+		t.Fatalf("expected 2 pairs, but got %v", len(history.Pairs))
 	}
+
+	// Test reporting a success.
+	ctx.reportSuccess()
 }
 
 // TestMissionControlChannelUpdate tests that the first channel update is not
@@ -186,16 +190,14 @@ func TestMissionControlChannelUpdate(t *testing.T) {
 	// Report a policy related failure. Because it is the first, we don't
 	// expect a penalty.
 	ctx.reportFailure(
-		ctx.now, 0,
+		0, lnwire.NewFeeInsufficient(0, lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}),
-		lnwire.NewFeeInsufficient(0, lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}),
 	)
 	ctx.expectP(0, 0.8)
 
 	// Report another failure for the same channel. We expect it to be
 	// pruned.
 	ctx.reportFailure(
-		ctx.now, 0,
+		0, lnwire.NewFeeInsufficient(0, lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}),
-		lnwire.NewFeeInsufficient(0, lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}),
 	)
 	ctx.expectP(0, 0)
 }

routing/mock_test.go

@@ -105,6 +105,12 @@ func (m *mockMissionControl) ReportPaymentFail(paymentID uint64, rt *route.Route
 	return nil, nil
 }
 
+func (m *mockMissionControl) ReportPaymentSuccess(paymentID uint64,
+	rt *route.Route) error {
+
+	return nil
+}
+
 func (m *mockMissionControl) GetProbability(fromNode, toNode route.Vertex,
 	amt lnwire.MilliSatoshi) float64 {
 

routing/pathfind.go

@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ var (
 
 	// DefaultAprioriHopProbability is the default a priori probability for
 	// a hop.
-	DefaultAprioriHopProbability = float64(0.95)
+	DefaultAprioriHopProbability = float64(0.6)
 )
 
 // edgePolicyWithSource is a helper struct to keep track of the source node

routing/payment_lifecycle.go

@@ -161,6 +161,15 @@ func (p *paymentLifecycle) resumePayment() ([32]byte, *route.Route, error) {
 		log.Debugf("Payment %x succeeded with pid=%v",
 			p.payment.PaymentHash, p.attempt.PaymentID)
 
+		// Report success to mission control.
+		err = p.router.cfg.MissionControl.ReportPaymentSuccess(
+			p.attempt.PaymentID, &p.attempt.Route,
+		)
+		if err != nil {
+			log.Errorf("Error reporting payment success to mc: %v",
+				err)
+		}
+
 		// In case of success we atomically store the db payment and
 		// move the payment to the success state.
 		err = p.router.cfg.Control.Success(p.payment.PaymentHash, result.Preimage)

routing/result_interpretation.go

@@ -1,6 +1,8 @@
 package routing
 
 import (
+	"fmt"
+
 	"github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd/channeldb"
 	"github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd/lnwire"
 	"github.com/lightningnetwork/lnd/routing/route"
@@ -12,17 +14,36 @@ var (
 	reasonIncorrectDetails = channeldb.FailureReasonIncorrectPaymentDetails
 )
 
+// pairResult contains the result of the interpretation of a payment attempt for
+// a specific node pair.
+type pairResult struct {
+	// minPenalizeAmt is the minimum amount for which a penalty should be
+	// applied based on this result. Only applies to fail results.
+	minPenalizeAmt lnwire.MilliSatoshi
+
+	// success indicates whether the payment attempt was successful through
+	// this pair.
+	success bool
+}
+
+// String returns the human-readable representation of a pair result.
+func (p pairResult) String() string {
+	if p.success {
+		return "success"
+	}
+
+	return fmt.Sprintf("failed (minPenalizeAmt=%v)", p.minPenalizeAmt)
+}
+
 // interpretedResult contains the result of the interpretation of a payment
-// outcome.
+// attempt.
 type interpretedResult struct {
 	// nodeFailure points to a node pubkey if all channels of that node are
 	// responsible for the result.
 	nodeFailure *route.Vertex
 
-	// pairResults contains a map of node pairs that could be responsible
+	// pairResults contains a map of node pairs for which we have a result.
-	// for the failure. The map values are the minimum amounts for which a
+	pairResults map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult
-	// future penalty should be applied.
-	pairResults map[DirectedNodePair]lnwire.MilliSatoshi
 
 	// finalFailureReason is set to a non-nil value if it makes no more
 	// sense to start another payment attempt. It will contain the reason
@@ -37,18 +58,28 @@ type interpretedResult struct {
 
 // interpretResult interprets a payment outcome and returns an object that
 // contains information required to update mission control.
-func interpretResult(rt *route.Route, failureSrcIdx *int,
+func interpretResult(rt *route.Route, success bool, failureSrcIdx *int,
 	failure lnwire.FailureMessage) *interpretedResult {
 
 	i := &interpretedResult{
-		pairResults: make(map[DirectedNodePair]lnwire.MilliSatoshi),
+		pairResults: make(map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult),
 	}
 
-	i.processFail(rt, failureSrcIdx, failure)
+	if success {
-
+		i.processSuccess(rt)
+	} else {
+		i.processFail(rt, failureSrcIdx, failure)
+	}
 	return i
 }
 
+// processSuccess processes a successful payment attempt.
+func (i *interpretedResult) processSuccess(route *route.Route) {
+	// For successes, all nodes must have acted in the right way. Therefore
+	// we mark all of them with a success result.
+	i.successPairRange(route, 0, len(route.Hops)-1)
+}
+
 // processFail processes a failed payment attempt.
 func (i *interpretedResult) processFail(
 	rt *route.Route, errSourceIdx *int,
@@ -141,10 +172,20 @@ func (i *interpretedResult) processPaymentOutcomeFinal(
 		// from its predecessor.
 		i.failPair(route, n-1)
 
+		// The other hops relayed corectly, so assign those pairs a
+		// success result.
+		if n > 2 {
+			i.successPairRange(route, 0, n-2)
+		}
+
 	// We are using wrong payment hash or amount, fail the payment.
 	case *lnwire.FailIncorrectPaymentAmount,
 		*lnwire.FailIncorrectDetails:
 
+		// Assign all pairs a success result, as the payment reached the
+		// destination correctly.
+		i.successPairRange(route, 0, n-1)
+
 		i.finalFailureReason = &reasonIncorrectDetails
 
 	// The HTLC that was extended to the final hop expires too soon. Fail
@@ -162,6 +203,12 @@ func (i *interpretedResult) processPaymentOutcomeFinal(
 		// final hop. They indicate that something is wrong at the
 		// recipient, so we do apply a penalty.
 		i.failNode(route, n)
+
+		// Other channels in the route forwarded correctly.
+		if n > 2 {
+			i.successPairRange(route, 0, n-2)
+		}
+
 		i.finalFailureReason = &reasonError
 	}
 }
@@ -182,6 +229,10 @@ func (i *interpretedResult) processPaymentOutcomeIntermediate(
 		i.failPairBalance(
 			route, errorSourceIdx,
 		)
+
+		// All nodes up to the failing pair must have forwarded
+		// successfully.
+		i.successPairRange(route, 0, errorSourceIdx-1)
 	}
 
 	reportIncoming := func() {
@@ -197,6 +248,12 @@ func (i *interpretedResult) processPaymentOutcomeIntermediate(
 		i.failPair(
 			route, errorSourceIdx-1,
 		)
+
+		// All nodes up to the failing pair must have forwarded
+		// successfully.
+		if errorSourceIdx > 2 {
+			i.successPairRange(route, 0, errorSourceIdx-2)
+		}
 	}
 
 	reportAll := func() {
@@ -330,8 +387,8 @@ func (i *interpretedResult) failPair(
 	pair, _ := getPair(rt, idx)
 
 	// Report pair in both directions without a minimum penalization amount.
-	i.pairResults[pair] = 0
+	i.pairResults[pair] = pairResult{}
-	i.pairResults[pair.Reverse()] = 0
+	i.pairResults[pair.Reverse()] = pairResult{}
 }
 
 // failPairBalance marks a pair as failed with a minimum penalization amount.
@@ -340,7 +397,23 @@ func (i *interpretedResult) failPairBalance(
 
 	pair, amt := getPair(rt, channelIdx)
 
-	i.pairResults[pair] = amt
+	i.pairResults[pair] = pairResult{
+		minPenalizeAmt: amt,
+	}
+}
+
+// successPairRange marks the node pairs from node fromIdx to node toIdx as
+// succeeded.
+func (i *interpretedResult) successPairRange(
+	rt *route.Route, fromIdx, toIdx int) {
+
+	for idx := fromIdx; idx <= toIdx; idx++ {
+		pair, _ := getPair(rt, idx)
+
+		i.pairResults[pair] = pairResult{
+			success: true,
+		}
+	}
 }
 
 // getPair returns a node pair from the route and the amount passed between that

routing/result_interpretation_test.go

@@ -50,6 +50,7 @@ func getTestPair(from, to int) DirectedNodePair {
 type resultTestCase struct {
 	name          string
 	route         *route.Route
+	success       bool
 	failureSrcIdx int
 	failure       lnwire.FailureMessage
 
@@ -66,8 +67,13 @@ var resultTestCases = []resultTestCase{
 		failure:       lnwire.NewTemporaryChannelFailure(nil),
 
 		expectedResult: &interpretedResult{
-			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]lnwire.MilliSatoshi{
+			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult{
-				getTestPair(1, 2): 99,
+				getTestPair(0, 1): {
+					success: true,
+				},
+				getTestPair(1, 2): {
+					minPenalizeAmt: 99,
+				},
 			},
 		},
 	},
@@ -80,13 +86,67 @@ var resultTestCases = []resultTestCase{
 		failure:       lnwire.NewExpiryTooSoon(lnwire.ChannelUpdate{}),
 
 		expectedResult: &interpretedResult{
-			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]lnwire.MilliSatoshi{
+			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult{
-				getTestPair(0, 1): 0,
+				getTestPair(0, 1): {},
-				getTestPair(1, 0): 0,
+				getTestPair(1, 0): {},
-				getTestPair(1, 2): 0,
+				getTestPair(1, 2): {},
-				getTestPair(2, 1): 0,
+				getTestPair(2, 1): {},
-				getTestPair(2, 3): 0,
+				getTestPair(2, 3): {},
-				getTestPair(3, 2): 0,
+				getTestPair(3, 2): {},
+			},
+		},
+	},
+
+	// Tests an incorrect payment details result. This should be a final
+	// failure, but mark all pairs along the route as successful.
+	{
+		name:          "fail incorrect details",
+		route:         &routeTwoHop,
+		failureSrcIdx: 2,
+		failure:       lnwire.NewFailIncorrectDetails(97),
+
+		expectedResult: &interpretedResult{
+			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult{
+				getTestPair(0, 1): {
+					success: true,
+				},
+				getTestPair(1, 2): {
+					success: true,
+				},
+			},
+			finalFailureReason: &reasonIncorrectDetails,
+		},
+	},
+
+	// Tests a successful direct payment.
+	{
+		name:    "success direct",
+		route:   &routeOneHop,
+		success: true,
+
+		expectedResult: &interpretedResult{
+			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult{
+				getTestPair(0, 1): {
+					success: true,
+				},
+			},
+		},
+	},
+
+	// Tests a successful two hop payment.
+	{
+		name:    "success",
+		route:   &routeTwoHop,
+		success: true,
+
+		expectedResult: &interpretedResult{
+			pairResults: map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult{
+				getTestPair(0, 1): {
+					success: true,
+				},
+				getTestPair(1, 2): {
+					success: true,
+				},
 			},
 		},
 	},
@@ -121,13 +181,13 @@ var resultTestCases = []resultTestCase{
 // TestResultInterpretation executes a list of test cases that test the result
 // interpretation logic.
 func TestResultInterpretation(t *testing.T) {
-	emptyResults := make(map[DirectedNodePair]lnwire.MilliSatoshi)
+	emptyResults := make(map[DirectedNodePair]pairResult)
 
 	for _, testCase := range resultTestCases {
 		t.Run(testCase.name, func(t *testing.T) {
 			i := interpretResult(
-				testCase.route, &testCase.failureSrcIdx,
+				testCase.route, testCase.success,
-				testCase.failure,
+				&testCase.failureSrcIdx, testCase.failure,
 			)
 
 			expected := testCase.expectedResult

routing/router.go

@@ -183,6 +183,10 @@ type MissionController interface {
 		failureSourceIdx *int, failure lnwire.FailureMessage) (
 		*channeldb.FailureReason, error)
 
+	// ReportPaymentSuccess reports a successful payment to mission control as input
+	// for future probability estimates.
+	ReportPaymentSuccess(paymentID uint64, rt *route.Route) error
+
 	// GetProbability is expected to return the success probability of a
 	// payment from fromNode along edge.
 	GetProbability(fromNode, toNode route.Vertex,