Files
bitcoin/test/functional
merge-script 7dcb7f09ed Merge bitcoin/bitcoin#34075: fees: Introduce Mempool Based Fee Estimation to reduce overestimation
7f9c4e2928 doc: add release notes (ismaelsadeeq)
e18d392689 test: add mempool estimator i/o fuzz test (ismaelsadeeq)
970f02096d fees: persist mempool policy estimator data (ismaelsadeeq)
7dcb37989d fees: move fee_estimates.dat into fees directory (ismaelsadeeq)
0db2b69e6d rpc: add verbosity option to estimatesmartfee options (ismaelsadeeq)
06bb65730e fees: gate mempool estimates on recent block coverage (ismaelsadeeq)
cfe585df25 validation: emit block mempool removal signal from ConnectTip (ismaelsadeeq)
0d88558f95 fees: return mempool estimates when it's lower than block policy (ismaelsadeeq)
693b1351af fees: add caching to MemPoolFeeRateEstimator (ismaelsadeeq)
c9bb3df29f fees: add MemPoolFeeRateEstimator class (ismaelsadeeq)
9cacf677a9 rpc: add fee_rate_estimator option to estimatesmartfee (ismaelsadeeq)
ba6c61bbdd fees: add FeeRateEstimatorManager class (ismaelsadeeq)
2cb6b831e0 fees: add EstimateFeeRate and MaximumTarget to CBlockPolicyEstimator (ismaelsadeeq)
5adb2ab084 refactor: test block policy estimator directly (ismaelsadeeq)
9c8309a890 test: rename policy estimator tests to block policy estimator tests (ismaelsadeeq)
e3d5ef1b5f fees: move StringForBlockPolicyEstimateReason to block policy estimator (ismaelsadeeq)
74245c20e0 fees: split wallet and estimator fee reasons (ismaelsadeeq)

Pull request description:

  This PR is another attempt to fix #27995 using a better approach.

  For background and motivation, see #27995 and the discussion in the Delving Bitcoin post [Mempool Based Fee Estimation on Bitcoin Core](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703).

  This PR is currently limited to using the mempool only to lower what is recommended by the Block Policy Estimator.
  Accurate and safe fee estimation using the mempool is challenging. There are open questions about how to prevent mempool games that are theoretically possible for miners [(a variant of the Finney attack)](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703/6).

  This is one reason this PR uses the mempool only to lower the Block Policy Estimator result. The Block Policy Estimator itself is not gameable in this way, so the combined estimate is not susceptible to this attack increasing the returned feerate.

  The underlying assumption is that, with the current tools and work done to make RBF and CPFP feasible and reliable (TRUC transaction relay, ephemeral anchors, cluster size 2 package RBF), underestimation is safer than overestimation. We now assume it is relatively easy to fee-bump later if a transaction does not confirm, whereas once a fee is overestimated there is no way to recover from that.

  Another open question when using the mempool for fee estimation is how to account for incoming transaction inflow.
  [Bitcoin Augur](https://github.com/block/bitcoin-augur) does this by using past inflow plus a constant expected inflow to predict future inflow. I find this unconvincing for fee estimation and potentially prone to more overestimation, as past conditions are not always representative of the future. See my [review of the Augur fee rate estimator and open questions](https://github.com/block/bitcoin-augur/issues/3).

  This PR uses a much simpler approach based on current user behavior, similar to the widely used method employed by mempool.space: looking at the top block of the mempool and selecting a percentile feerate depending on whether the user is economical or conservative.

  Empirical data from both myself and Clara Shikhelman shows that the 75th percentile feerate for economical users and the 50th percentile feerate for conservative users provide positive confirmation guarantees, hence this is what is used in this PR.

  Parallel research by Rene Pickhardt and his student suggests that using the [average fee per byte of the block template performs well](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703/12).

  All of these are constants that can be adjusted. There is parallel work exploring these constants and running benchmarks across fee estimators to find a sweet spot.

  See also work in LND, the [LND Budget Sweeper](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/lnds-deadline-aware-budget-sweeper/1512), which applies this idea successfully. Their approach is to estimate fees initially with bitcoind, then increment gradually as the confirmation deadline approaches, using a fixed fee budget.

  Historical data indicates that this PR's approach can [reduce overestimation quite significantly (~29%)](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703/8).

  This is particularly useful in scenarios where the Block Policy Estimator recommends a high feerate while the mempool is empty.

  <img width="1800" height="1090" alt="56f3ba26c0184521c42bb82ec9d8c9f2224d4f8e" src="https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/c035c40c-8ece-42a7-b290-d29f1ac9bf4d" />

  As seen in the image above, there is only one remaining unfixed case: when there is a sudden inflow of transactions and the feerate rises, the Block Policy Estimator takes time to reflect this. In that case, users will continue to see a low feerate estimate until it slowly updates. From the historical data linked above, [this occurs about ~26% of the time](https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/mempool-based-fee-estimation-on-bitcoin-core/703/8).

  Overall, we observe a **73% success rate with 0% overestimation, and 26% underestimation** with this approach.

  See https://bitcoincorefeerate.com/stats for recent running stats that have almost identical data.

  This PR also includes refactors that enable this work. Rather than splitting the PR and implementing changes incrementally, I opted for an end-to-end implementation:

  ### 1. Refactors

  * Split the mixed fee reason enum into separate wallet and block policy concepts. The wallet now has a `FeeReason` enum for why the wallet selected a fee rate (`FEE_RATE_ESTIMATOR`, `MEMPOOL_MIN`, `USER_SPECIFIED`, `FALLBACK`, `REQUIRED`), while the Block Policy Estimator uses `BlockPolicyEstimateReason` for its internal threshold details.
  * Move `StringForBlockPolicyEstimateReason` to the Block Policy Estimator code, keeping the estimator-specific strings with the estimator.
  * Move detailed Block Policy Estimator logging out of wallet transaction creation and into the estimator path. Wallet transaction creation now logs the selected fee and wallet fee reason instead of leaking estimator internals.
  * Keep the wallet RPC `fee_reason` field name for compatibility, but update its meaning to report the wallet fee reason instead of the Block Policy Estimator's internal threshold reason.
  * Rename policy estimator tests and files to block-policy-specific names where appropriate.
  * Update Block Policy Estimator unit tests to be independent of the mempool and validation interface.

  ### 2. Introduce Mempool-Based Fee Estimator and Fee Estimator Manager

  * Introduce `FeeRateEstimation` and `FeeRateEstimationError` as common estimator result types, avoiding new out-parameters for fee estimation results.
  * Add `FeeRateEstimatorType` to identify the estimator that produced a result.
  * Add `FeeRateEstimatorManager`, responsible for owning the Block Policy Estimator and Mempool Fee Rate Estimator.
  * Update the node context to store a `std::unique_ptr` to `FeeRateEstimatorManager` instead of `CBlockPolicyEstimator`.
  * Update `CBlockPolicyEstimator` to no longer subscribe directly to the validation interface; instead, `FeeRateEstimatorManager` subscribes and forwards relevant notifications.
  * Add a mempool fee estimator that generates a block template when called, calculates a percentile feerate, and returns the 75th percentile for economical mode or the 50th percentile for conservative mode.
  * When the selected estimate is below the node's fee floor, `estimatesmartfee` still returns at least the max of `mempoolminfee` and `minrelaytxfee`.
  * Add caching to the mempool estimator so new estimates are generated at most every 7 seconds while the chain tip is unchanged, assuming enough [transactions have propagated](https://bitcoin.stackexchange.com/questions/125776/how-long-does-it-take-for-a-transaction-to-propagate-through-the-network/125777#125777) to make a meaningful difference.
    This heuristic will likely be replaced by requesting block templates via the general-purpose block template cache proposed here: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/issues/33389
  * Update `MempoolTransactionsRemovedForBlock` to receive the connected block as well as the transactions removed from the mempool.
  * Track the weight of block transactions and mempool transactions removed due to block connection after each block connection.
    This data is tracked for the last 6 mined blocks. A mempool feerate estimate is returned only when the ratio of mempool transaction weight removed due to block connection to block transaction weight is greater than 75% across the tracked window. This heuristic provides rough confidence that the node's mempool matches that of the majority of the hashrate. The 75% threshold is arbitrary and can be adjusted.

  There is a caveat when transactions in the local mempool are consistently not mined by the network, as described in #27995 (e.g. due to filtering).
  Accounting for these transactions during fee estimation is not necessary, as they should be evicted from the mempool itself (see #33510). Handling this again within fee estimation would be redundant.

  * Persist statistics for the 6 most recent mined blocks to `fees/mempool_policy_estimator.dat` during periodic flushes and shutdown, so this data is available after restarts.
  * Move Block Policy Estimator data from `fee_estimates.dat` to `fees/block_policy_estimates.dat`, migrating the legacy file during startup when needed.
  * Add `fee_rate_estimator` to the `estimatesmartfee` options object. Supported values are `"none"` (default combined behavior), `"block_policy"` (use only the Block Policy Estimator), and `"mempool_policy"` (use only the Mempool Fee Rate Estimator). Unknown values are treated as `"none"`.
  * Add `verbosity` to the `estimatesmartfee` options object. With `verbosity >= 2`, the RPC returns recent mempool health statistics.
  * Expose the selected fee rate estimator in `estimatesmartfee` results when `fee_rate_estimator` is `"none"` and the estimate succeeds.
  * Add unit, functional, and fuzz test coverage for the new estimator behavior, persistence, RPC options, and estimator I/O.

  <details>
  <summary>see example output</summary>

  ```bash
  bitcoin-cli estimatesmartfee 1 economical '{"verbosity": 2, "fee_rate_estimator": "none"}'
  ```

  ```json
  {
    "feerate": 0.00002133,
    "estimator": "mempool_policy",
    "blocks": 2,
    "mempool_health_statistics": [
      {
        "block_height": 927953,
        "block_weight": 3991729,
        "mempool_txs_weight": 3942409
      }
    ]
  }
  ```

  </details>

ACKs for top commit:
  willcl-ark:
    reACK 7f9c4e2928
  jsarenik:
    Approach ACK 7f9c4e2

Tree-SHA512: c35b423eea0eb34524cf5ad07822c0ab8d53e2ab78965b58c8738044c61c77352184822360ed077a51bfbf83d0226d221e988f7156b1948023707c7e1fb31495
2026-08-21 09:04:48 +01:00
..
2026-07-23 12:08:26 +02:00
2026-06-04 21:58:56 +10:00
2026-07-16 10:29:58 +01:00
2026-08-07 15:02:18 +02:00
2026-04-29 15:11:44 -07:00

Functional tests

Writing Functional Tests

Example test

The file test/functional/example_test.py is a heavily commented example of a test case that uses both the RPC and P2P interfaces. If you are writing your first test, copy that file and modify to fit your needs.

Coverage

Assuming the build directory is build, running build/test/functional/test_runner.py with the --coverage argument tracks which RPCs are called by the tests and prints a report of uncovered RPCs in the summary. This can be used (along with the --extended argument) to find out which RPCs we don't have test cases for.

Style guidelines

  • Where possible, try to adhere to PEP-8 guidelines
  • Use a python linter like flake8 before submitting PRs to catch common style nits (eg trailing whitespace, unused imports, etc)
  • The oldest supported Python version is specified in doc/dependencies.md. Consider using pyenv, which checks .python-version, to prevent accidentally introducing modern syntax from an unsupported Python version. The CI linter job also checks this, but possibly not in all cases.
  • See the python lint script that checks for violations that could lead to bugs and issues in the test code.
  • Use type hints in your code to improve code readability and to detect possible bugs earlier.
  • Avoid wildcard imports.
  • If more than one name from a module is needed, use lexicographically sorted multi-line imports in order to reduce the possibility of potential merge conflicts.
  • Use a module-level docstring to describe what the test is testing, and how it is testing it.
  • When subclassing the BitcoinTestFramework, place overrides for the set_test_params(), add_options() and setup_xxxx() methods at the top of the subclass, then locally-defined helper methods, then the run_test() method.
  • Use f'{x}' for string formatting in preference to '{}'.format(x) or '%s' % x.
  • Use platform.system() for detecting the running operating system and os.name to check whether it's a POSIX system (see also the skip_if_platform_not_{linux,posix} methods in the BitcoinTestFramework class, which can be used to skip a whole test depending on the platform).

Naming guidelines

  • Name the test <area>_test.py, where area can be one of the following:
    • feature for tests for full features that aren't wallet/mining/mempool, eg feature_rbf.py
    • interface for tests for other interfaces (REST, ZMQ, etc), eg interface_rest.py
    • mempool for tests for mempool behaviour, eg mempool_reorg.py
    • mining for tests for mining features, eg mining_prioritisetransaction.py
    • p2p for tests that explicitly test the p2p interface, eg p2p_disconnect_ban.py
    • rpc for tests for individual RPC methods or features, eg rpc_listtransactions.py
    • tool for tests for tools, eg tool_wallet.py
    • wallet for tests for wallet features, eg wallet_keypool.py
  • Use an underscore to separate words
    • exception: for tests for specific RPCs or command line options which don't include underscores, name the test after the exact RPC or argument name, eg rpc_decodescript.py, not rpc_decode_script.py
  • Don't use the redundant word test in the name, eg interface_zmq.py, not interface_zmq_test.py

General test-writing advice

  • Instead of inline comments or no test documentation at all, log the comments to the test log, e.g. self.log.info('Create enough transactions to fill a block'). Logs make the test code easier to read and the test logic easier to debug.
  • Set self.num_nodes to the minimum number of nodes necessary for the test. Having additional unrequired nodes adds to the execution time of the test as well as memory/CPU/disk requirements (which is important when running tests in parallel).
  • Avoid stop-starting the nodes multiple times during the test if possible. A stop-start takes several seconds, so doing it several times blows up the runtime of the test.
  • Set the self.setup_clean_chain variable in set_test_params() to True to initialize an empty blockchain and start from the Genesis block, rather than load a premined blockchain from cache with the default value of False. The cached data directories contain a 200-block pre-mined blockchain with the spendable mining rewards being split between four nodes. Each node has 25 mature block subsidies (25x50=1250 BTC) in its wallet. Using them is much more efficient than mining blocks in your test.
  • When calling RPCs with lots of arguments, consider using named keyword arguments instead of positional arguments to make the intent of the call clear to readers.
  • Many of the core test framework classes such as CBlock and CTransaction don't allow new attributes to be added to their objects at runtime like typical Python objects allow. This helps prevent unpredictable side effects from typographical errors or usage of the objects outside of their intended purpose.

RPC and P2P definitions

Test writers may find it helpful to refer to the definitions for the RPC and P2P messages. These can be found in the following source files:

  • /src/rpc/* for RPCs
  • /src/wallet/rpc* for wallet RPCs
  • ProcessMessage() in /src/net_processing.cpp for parsing P2P messages

Using the P2P interface

  • P2Ps can be used to test specific P2P protocol behavior. p2p.py contains test framework p2p objects and messages.py contains all the definitions for objects passed over the network (CBlock, CTransaction, etc, along with the network-level wrappers for them, msg_block, msg_tx, etc).

  • P2P tests have two threads. One thread handles all network communication with the bitcoind(s) being tested in a callback-based event loop; the other implements the test logic.

  • P2PConnection is the class used to connect to a bitcoind. P2PInterface contains the higher level logic for processing P2P payloads and connecting to the Bitcoin Core node application logic. For custom behaviour, subclass the P2PInterface object and override the callback methods.

P2PConnections can be used as such:

p2p_conn = node.add_p2p_connection(P2PInterface())
p2p_conn.send_and_ping(msg)

They can also be referenced by indexing into a TestNode's p2ps list, which contains the list of test framework p2p objects connected to itself (it does not include any TestNodes):

node.p2ps[0].sync_with_ping()

More examples can be found in p2p_unrequested_blocks.py, p2p_compactblocks.py.

Prototyping tests

The TestShell class exposes the BitcoinTestFramework functionality to interactive Python3 environments and can be used to prototype tests. This may be especially useful in a REPL environment with session logging utilities, such as IPython. The logs of such interactive sessions can later be adapted into permanent test cases.

Test framework modules

The following are useful modules for test developers. They are located in test/functional/test_framework/.

authproxy.py

Taken from the python-bitcoinrpc repository.

test_framework.py

Base class for functional tests.

util.py

Generally useful functions.

p2p.py

Test objects for interacting with a bitcoind node over the p2p interface.

script.py

Utilities for manipulating transaction scripts (originally from python-bitcoinlib)

key.py

Test-only secp256k1 elliptic curve implementation

blocktools.py

Helper functions for creating blocks and transactions.